Bitcoin Crash. Where I’m Buying For The Long Term
Things And Merchants And also you Don't like my voice They sound quite happy I'll come back you're out girls magical Happy death game welcome back to the Aircraft crypto Channel wishing you a Happy birthday Sunday morning over here From an island in an unknown location Absolutely beautiful outside not so Beautiful in the cryptocurrency Landscape seems like every day every few Hours every few minutes another major Piece of information comes out which is Quite damning to the overall sector However I wanted to go over some I guess I'm trying to spin this as hope I'm here I don't know how much opium or how much Comfort it'll be to some people but I do Want to go over what I believe is most Likely thing to be happening in the next Couple months as well as go over the Short-term time frames as well other Than that I want to just get actually Right on into it right now waste no more Time so first things first I wanted to Start off with the short-term time Frames of which we're looking at the Same short-term time frame ranges as Before that would be about 18 500 to the Upside uh versus about 16 250 to the Downside on a four hour closing basis Again coming off of Thursday Friday
Action we were looking at it volatility Extremes which was likely going to Create a bounce which I believe that We've I mean did see it was almost 20 Bounce right there however that would Imply that this was a corrective balance And corrective within the context of a Downtrend would imply well Trend Continuation and in this case we do see That there is hidden bearish Divergence On the four hour RSI and if we go and Reference stochastic momentum on the Medium and short-term time frames we can See that the 12 hour pivot is currently At 17 000 bucks meaning that a Bitcoin Closed below there 12 hour momentum once Again turns to the downside in the Bearish control zone six hour time frame Is going to be loading and my internet Connection is not looking too good today Yes come on baby Come on baby load it up there we go 16 600 gonna be the magical number on this One of which Bitcoin is about 100 bucks For low as of the as of this recording Uh and by the way there's two hours and 24 minutes left to go on that one four Hour time frame will also be loading if You can see come on baby this island Internet not great definitely not great Uh can we actually get it to load yes There we go sixteen Thousand Seven Seventy which Bitcoin is a few hundred Bucks below as of this moment and the
Hourly is going to be down as well below 16 700. typically speaking I don't Really Um trust indicators too much over the Weekend but ultimately You know you can see where those pivots Align and again you know what is that Essentially align with probably another Test to the downside of the range do we See an actual clip closure below the Range lows or not that question remains To be Um well answered I suspect but uh there Is a bit of a setup going on right here So if there is a closure below the range Lows well at that point I'd be looking For this next week to open obviously Lower and we can start to talk about the Next areas of interest to the downside By the same token and I guess for some Potential uh short-term medium term Hopium you know Bitcoin were to reclaim Specifically the 18 and a half thousand Dollar level on a full hour time frame Closed closing basis or eighteen Thousand dollars on a daily closing Basis or a little bit above 18 let's say At that point I would say hey we have a Nice Bara trap going on right here and Bitcoin is very likely to put in another Move north of 20 000 bucks Um and we can say that the short-term Medium term downside is very likely over For the time being it's trying to tie
And it's time to try a little bit of Sideways enough it's not a call for the For for the beginning of a next Bull Marketing anything like that just Short-term moves here so now that we've Gotten that out of the way let me Reference my notes really quickly I Wanted to go over the higher term time Frame so uh kind of putting putting the Puzzle piece together I do think that it Is you know rather relevant to say that Bitcoin probably does have one more leg Lower but there are a few things that I Do think can promote some potential hope And maybe a little bit of comfort to More long-term minded people here of Which uh first let's go over well the Weekly the weekly stock sorry the weekly RSI is showing hidden bearish evidence Obviously that is more or less a Formality seen as we have the same thing On CME that one already confirmed on Friday closure and of course any sort of A closure today for spot price action Below the below the weekly pivot which Is 17 500 will confirm and very likely Does Propel another move to the downside In this coming week there goes my Internet yet again but here we go Beautiful yeah just showing the CME Chart right here as it does start you or You know as it does start to populate Already obvious confirming that Weekly Closure and that hidden bearish
Divergence alongside extreme lows on Weekly volatility if we go and reference The weekly stochastic momentum also this One is going to have some hidden bearish Divergence or hit embellished Divergence But is going to be Crossing to the Downside with any sort of a closure Today at 8 pm eastern time I believe it Is now that we have daylight savings Time uh below 17 150. so again you know If you can see Bitcoin essentially Reclaim the 17 000 region or so uh Perhaps you know we can start to talk About some trap activity here Um but for right now you know risk Still Remains to the downside unfortunately The question is this Bitcoin actually Break the ranges to the downside and Have a continuation move sooner rather Than later so again my line in the Center for that one is about 16 200 on At least a medium term time frame Closing basis and at that point we start To you know reference the next sort of Areas of interest to the downside I did Say I was going to talk about some Hopium believe me it's coming up here Soon but uh but I do want to talk about You know where the next areas of Interest would be to the downside if That were to happen so let's go over Here to the two-day time frame this is The same chart we've been referencing For I mean it's been relevant for quite
Some time now basically since middle of October and we started and we saw it Actually resolve uh this past week based Upon that news event and this is the Two-day CME chart this is a volatility Versus stochastic momentum signature Volatility represented by this metric That my cursor is currently on right now Whenever it gets to extreme lows Throughout the full history of CM means Existence the expansion phase from these Extreme lows has led average move of About 39.5 done over the course of about Three and a half weeks and the Stochastic oscillator's Direction has Been correct and getting the direction Of the volatility expansion 80 of the Time now this 11th iteration that we're Seeing right here is obviously going to Be another hit as well Bitcoin is moving To the downside alongside the two-day uh Stocast golf sweater so that'll go to Like 9 out of 11 which is I don't know Like 83 or so Um but ultimately we can get some areas Of interest to the downside by using the Average move and the first standard Deviation here's the thing we've already Hit the bottom end of the first standard Deviation I think that was like the First sort of hopium Target for Potentially a low at least a balance and Obviously we've already seen a balance Uh but 32 percent put you know put
Bitcoin at about 14 nine or so which is Literally actually the low on CME thus Far Um And uh and then if we well if we see Continuation two new lows below there Again I want to see like at least a Medium term time from preferably higher Term time from closure below about 16 2 Or so uh for that to be relevant then we Start to look at the average move it's About 39.5 of which that would put Bitcoin if I can actually get it down There yeah that'll put Bitcoin at around The mid to low 13s Um so you know quite a big leg down There probably not going to happen all In the same like hour or day for that Matter but just kind of in you know an Area of interest for the next move to The downside and the things get Particularly nasty uh the top end of the First is the standard deviation is Almost 47 which would put hey stop that Which would put Bitcoin Um you know closer to about 11 000 bucks Uh you know maybe even a little bit Below 11 000 bucks by the way we're Talking about closing basices who knows Where a [ __ ] wit goes I have no idea But here's the thing now that we have The signage confirmed uh this happened Uh basically very early November we can Look at the average days as relevant for
Kind of timing this sort of a thing and Because that started over here let me Just get this on there we go we've Already seen about six days of this Trans bar and that's actually not Counting the weekend so when it opens up For Monday we'll be on day number 10 Basically or around day number 10. so on Average we expect the signal to take About three and a half weeks to play out We've seen a little bit less than half Of that time transpire almost already so It would still be relevant to say that You know statistically speaking risk Does remain to the downside risk does Remain lower the question is how low Does it go well here's the thing I do Want to address a few pieces of Potential Comfort hopium whatever you Want to call it and I've made some Tweets on this as well Actually been using Twitter a lot a lot More recently because it's pretty damn Fun now that elon's in charge but Basically it is this you know just from A sentiment standpoint we are witnessing Extremes we're witnessing extreme event We're witnessing a Black Swan I mean This quite literally a black [ __ ] Swan right uh with FTX going under I Think very few people foresaw this Um myself definitely I did not foresee This uh and it's quite a surprise and Also quite a big deal we're also
Witnessing extreme volatility we're Winning seeing extreme um sentiment We're witnessing extreme macro Conditions we're witnessing all all Sorts of extremes and there's a lot of Animosity and question marks within the Market right now so typically around These sort of times these sort of Black Swan events you know these are the times When lows are more than likely to be put In Um you know timing wise now that does Not imply price wise now time wise I Would say probably before the end of 2023 maybe even the next like two weeks Stint here I think maybe even the next Week it's possible if we get under the Leg down to one of these major numbers Um but with that said uh that would you Know probably be a good indication that Uh at least bitcoin's gonna try for like A major low maybe even a macro low uh That's kind of my my thoughts as of Right now what I also wanted to play Into this picture is the Dixie chart so This is also Um you know why I think things are very Interesting here so Dixie uh the dollar Index basically the dollar uh you know The dollar versus other Fiat currencies Has actually initiated its reversal um Now we've been looking at this one as Like the reverse for the past month Month and a half we said that hey it's
Going to take some time obviously that This is a weekly top but very likely Looking for big moves down maybe even as Low as like a buck 05 or so which I Think is very likely to hit maybe a Little bit lower than that ultimately Though Uh Bitcoin has you know not uh not Benefited from that while traditional Markets have so what is the Differentiating factor here well Bitcoin's Black Swan event very likely So in this case what does that imply Well that implies that if Bitcoin you Know did not experience its FTX event uh And all the Fallout from it probably Would have had a nice rally probably Would have you know been maybe like Somewhere between 22 to 23 let's say uh A thousand bucks So All Phase considered um you know this This sort of an event will inevitably Wash by it's just you know question of How long and at that point you probably Look for Bitcoin to play a bit of catch Up here Um so I would be looking at that as a Good you know some a good condition that Bitcoin probably does uh find its Footing at some point and when it does It's probably going to Rally you know Relatively hard uh relatively hard let's Say now the monthly here for Dixie I do Want to say that we also need to hit our
First targeted region between about 105 To 106. so I actually would be looking For a bounce on Dixie you know coming Into this next week or two That probably doesn't help Bitcoin out To be fair that probably doesn't help Bitcoin out Um so that could also be another you Know another thing kind of playing into The into what I'm thinking here that Bitcoin probably has one more leg down Um probably has one more leg down before Trying for a major low uh but ultimately After that I would be looking for Dixie To come even lower potentially even as Low as like a bucko three to a buck o Two Um at which point that's where you know If we're gonna be looking for higher Lows that'd be a great place for a Higher low I suspect but for right now You know that would that would again Kind of play into the Bitcoin analysis Other than that what else did I want to Say here as I reference my notes yes so Going over to the crown trading Application we haven't done this in a While but there's a lot of really Interesting things here that really Support the case of extremes one funding Rates we saw the lowest of the low Funding rates lower than anything that We've seen in in like a year or two now Uh on the FTX event now obviously that's
Cooling off here but it is still rather Negative Um so you know shorts are essentially Paying you know pretty penny in order to Keep their positions short again how Long can that go on for it can go on for Another week or two definitely but at That point it's really time to start Looking for a greater bounce in my Opinion Um the exchanges Bitcoin Reserve has Absolutely fallen off a cliff as you as You'd imagine and the global open Interest is going down to levels that we Have not seen in in years and years Quite literally so the market is Resetting here we are getting to Extremes these are quite literally Extreme fundamental reads and on top of That the leverage ratio can you actually See it let me just double check yes you Can alright so it's right here next to My rat face you can see that that is Actually well coming down significantly As well for the first time in in like Half a year so these These are really Starting to print um things that I do Think are somewhat comforting for the Long term uh again maybe I'm twisting This into maybe more hoping than it Deserves I don't know Um but uh but we are witnessing extremes And that's the time to you know probably Be looking for a counter movement and
Here's the thing you know people people Uh generally speaking a lot of people What's like the common thing to say on It on on on on Twitter what's like the Really egotistical thing to say on Twitter the really egotistical thing to Say on Twitter is everyone's thinking This so I'm thinking that and it's like That is never true because not everyone Thinks the same [ __ ] thing duh but This is one of those times where I mean I don't see anyone calling for like a Major low as of right now correct me if I'm wrong but very few people okay There's a great imbalance so if you Truly do want to be a contrarian well Not the worst time to be one I suspect Um and then on top of that you know and And this this is this the next point I'm Going to make is like a little bit it's A little bit glib it's a little bit uh On the nose and I do apologize this is Not really intended to be directed at Anyone in particular but you probably Notice if you've been around the social Media of any is that some of the biggest Uh boolas you know people who are Basically bullish the whole way [ __ ] Down after like an 80 move to the Downside are now turning bearish which Is just uh You Gotta Love You Gotta Love Markets man I gotta love markets and now They're looking to sell in order to buy Buy back like you know 20 to 30 low
Which is hilarious because that you'd Even like tell people that on you know Social media to begin with uh probably Doesn't matter too much but you get my Point Um and so you know you are we are Starting to witness capitulation by some Of the biggest boo laws as far as Influencers go which I think is you know Very very interesting and rather telling Perhaps as well could I be wrong about This sure yeah but uh but I want to see Those levels fail first before uh before That sort of uh you know notion is wrong Which would definitely be below about 11 000 bucks again on a closing basis there Can be what's obviously lower Um you know personally speaking I still Think worst case scenario like worst Worst worst worst worst case scenario as Of right now is is maybe like a wick Somewhere down around about nine Thousand bucks and then close above 11. Um some like that uh would kind of make Sense anyways is that a good place for Me to be leaving off on a particular Video like this uh yeah probably Um I oh yes there is one last thing also When we're talking about extreme events I want to see humongous reads on volume You very rarely hear me talk about Volume because I think it's I think in a Lot of cases it's kind of a meme people I know people are gonna really [ __ ]
Hate that statement but like looking at On a [ __ ] one minute chart isn't that Useful I mean yeah sure look if you're Making money doing that great you know More power to you but on the weekly here We're looking at the highest volume Reads on coinbase and I believe the Indexes will so basically all you know All exchanges ever we expect you know Climaxes uh like this on Extreme lows When was the last time we saw something Like this that was back on over here on The summer lows of last year in May what Was the time before that that was in March 2020 off The Rona dump when was The time before that you know over on This major high and over on this major Low and over on this major High you know You get my point essentially in the Sense that uh you know we're starting to See a lot of things that do suggest that Uh things are getting you know a little Bit overdone here Um so if I had to call things right now I think probably one more like lower uh We've already kind of gone over relevant Targets for that and um and then uh well I'd I'd be interested to see if there's Any sort of uh bouncy bounce activity From there and then come back to it After that Um as far as my own dealings you know I've been pretty vocal about that you Know I don't know where things are gonna
[ __ ] bottom at the end of the day so That's why uh when things get down to Major areas for me I'm happy to put in a Little bit uh of like my intended Equity I did the same thing at like 20 000 Bucks obviously that did not work out in This case the next one you know are Those next areas of interest Um uh you know I want to reserve Obviously 30 of my intended Equity you Know just in general Um as dry powder but the rest of it um That's you know these are the times when If I'm thinking long term like 10 plus Years 20 plus years I'm interested in Potentially uh you know putting some in I suppose uh For Better or Worse anyways What else I think that's a good place to Leave it off uh yes now that there's a Lot of question marks with exchanges I Think I think it's relevant to say that Hey despite having a referral link to Buy bit in the description below of Which they have you know some pretty Insane promotions going on which I don't Know maybe it's like a red flag in and Of itself I do want to say that if that Does concern you which you know Obviously we're all responsible for Ourselves understand that I know that by Bit for sure they've told me their Representative has told me because I've Asked about this uh they are in the Process of putting together a Merkle
Tree analysis for proof of funds and They will have that done as soon as Possible so you know if you are a little Bit more risk-averse then waiting for Something like that is probably the Right thing to be doing Um and then at the end of the day do you Do do your due diligence uh for myself You know it makes sense Um you know this is what leverage was Designed for it's like don't have all Your [ __ ] funds on exchanges to begin With like there's no need to you can use Leverage to make up for the discrepancy There in order to cover yourself if need Be if if you even want to trade to begin With at all Um but buy bid actually does you know Have some good promotions going on right Now zero percent on Mega fees for Derivative and spot orders and then of Course they have that thirty thousand Dollar deposit bonus uh now there's some Fine writing with that obviously it's Based off your trading volume and how Much you deposit Um but you know they want people on Their exchange and well I suspect that Uh I'll let you make the decision for Yourself all right sweet that's a good Place to be leaving it off take care Much love and see you hopefully soon