Bitcoin Macro Picture Is Changing

Welcome back to the Eric Crown crypto Channel wishing you a happy early start Test size Tuesday morning over here as We get ready to wrap up this month of November and head into December we still Got one more day left one more day left Trading but I wanted to go over some Very high term time room ideas and then Thread it into the lower term time Frames as well as well very little has Actually been happening in the last uh In the last few days anyways we still Got the uh the blacks not the black sale The Black Friday sale going on right Here sorry BLM not trying to uh poke any Any uh any Hornet's mess I guess but in This case I should let you know please Do not fomo into any one of the programs I would humbly request that you do watch The promotional videos if you're Interested in any one of the programs or Indicators as they're gonna explain who They're for who then offer what Essentially to expect inside of it Um one thing I do want to make a note of However is for the people in the Quant Project Um there's been well a ton of new videos Uploaded in the live trade section one Of them is a particular interest that Was done this morning which was the um Strategy number four optimization for Entry uh it's a very short video but I Do think that a little address just

Something that is probably going to be Valuable Anyways yes so let's just jump right on Into it let's go into the first chart of The day the monthly for Bitcoin here as Always when it comes to the end of the Month I'm looking at the accumulation And distribution indicator chart because I give this kind of an insight as to Where we are on the macro scale is it Time to be looking at this as more of a Low or not or is it time to be looking At this as you know the changing tides And in this case a few things of Interest here so first and foremost what I care most about with this indicator When I'm talking about macro shifts in Direction is the actual slope of the Indicator itself as you can see right Now it is to the downside anytime that We've seen a slope change in the extreme Red or green zones that's correlated to A change in macro Direction within like The next um I'd say one to three months Which gets a ton of fall through I mean A [ __ ] ton of fall through but in this Case right here you can see that right Now it is to the downside and if we do Get a positive slope that would be the Next sort of major indication that we're Probably we've probably seen the low or We're so close to the low where it's Like hey uh you know you might see a Move down to like 13 000 bucks or so but

Ultimately it's like hey you might see a Move down to like 2000 months we're Pretty close Um here's the thing it's 69 to uh to 15 Thus far what's another 2 000 baby What's another 10 000 in fact Um no but in a more serious tone uh you Know if we do start to see this uh uh go To the upside that's the point where I Really start to be looking at you know Anything around here is good enough Basically for the long term you can Obviously back test this yourself when The slope change um happens usually the Low is actually already in the low is Actually already in Um as of like uh you know two to three Yeah about two to three months um prior To that Um but on a closing basis very very very Very very close still anyways the next Thing that I want to bring up about this Is that uh we are also hitting this Regression of a trend line going back to Uh the major lows of the 2014-2015 over Here and then also we have seen a major Correction which is very much in Alignment with what we have seen uh in The past as far as what to expect coming Off of these macro Corrections so let me Explain this next part um and explain uh Which kind of gives us intight as to you Know where a macro low might be and if There is going to be continuation where

That might be as well but basically what I've done here is I've measured from When the indicator itself goes from red To green or sorry well from green to Red Actually is what I mean to say dyslexia Again but I mean the bunghole here but For example this would be right here in January of 2020. now I measured from That part to the next major low so in This case here's the change here's the Next major low and you can see that that Was a 62 and a half percent correct Corrective phase I've gone through all The prior Cycles with this and there's Actually been some good uh some I Wouldn't say agreement but some good Data derived from that keep in mind we Only have four prior ones so it's not Perfect I mean obviously we'd like a lot More than that but it's the best we can Do unfortunately with the data that we Have so in this case I've calculated That uh the average correction from that Time has led to about a 61 spot three Four percent move and if we were to Create a first animation that'd give us A range basically from 56 all the way up To almost 67. so here's here's what's Interesting about this we've actually Already seen the average hit we've seen Thus far correct a correction of 61 spot 6 3 from when the indicator turned red Over here in May to where we are Currently at uh in November on the

Current lows so you know historically Speaking Bitcoins very very very very Likely to be closer to a major low than Not Um and uh and of course we were to see Another leg down I'd look somewhere Closer to the top side of the first in Aviation which would be 66 spot 80. you You already know where I'm going with This you've been on the channel for you Know any short amount of time at this Point but 66.80 would put Bitcoin Basically in the um yeah and like the 13 000 Ranger so you know give or take About 250 to 500 bucks from that number Um so again you know these are these are Extremes here Um but we are starting to witness at Least in my opinion Um you know if you're very long-term Mind it's like how how cute do you want To get with things that's a that's a Question for you to answer obviously Maybe you want to be the cutest perhaps Maybe you want to delete it later also Also possible as well uh but in that Case you know might be might be of Relevance to you anyways I want to go Through now the lower term time frames And then we'll follow very very briefly On the higher term time frames as well Um I'm working through the full Explanations of things just because I Think most people probably probably

Pretty [ __ ] bored with that by this Point but going back over here to the Six hour and the 12 hour that we were Looking at yesterday for CME again Extreme lows on volatility for both six And uh in the 12. I do look at this as Very likely to expand Maybe not today But probably tomorrow meaning that you Know if you are looking at these moves That's likely to play yeah it might Happen today probably tomorrow Wednesday Typically is the most volatile day Actually for Bitcoin in case Um in case you happen to give a [ __ ] I Guess but we still with the current Price action have the same setup as Before I mean it's I know it's [ __ ] Boring I know it's repetitive but that Just is what it is and I can't really Make up stuff that like doesn't actually Exist on the charts or at least I think That that would be like That would keep me up at night like I Wouldn't be able to stand by that Anyways in this case we do have another Drive of hidden bearish Divergence on The four hour RSI setting up right here It's actually hidden bullish evidence uh Setting up from yesterday's video that's I would say already played out if you're In the Quant program or the TA program You kind of know what I'm thinking by This test on the 55 right here Ultimately and of course if there is

Gonna be another local high confirmed in This case that would just confirm Another Drive of hidden bearish Divergence and probably beget another Test back down to the bottom side of the Range so yesterday we saw a test down to 15 660 on CME I'd say that's close Enough in this case if you're going to See another one down probably somewhere Around there maybe another 100 to 200 Bucks lower again this is on CME so There's a bit of a price discount Compared to spot price action about uh Looks like about 100 to 200 bucks as of Right now six hour time frame same thing I mean it's setting up for potentially Another Drive of hidden bearish evidence Again if you confirm a local high here How would you confirm a local high Closure below 16 1 or 16 150 if you want To be like super super exact for spot Price action mode the equivalent level B Um like 16 3 or 16 3 probably 16 3 I'd Say I'd be a little more on the Conservative side with it Um yeah that probably doesn't maybe 16 350 depending upon your uh your risk Tolerance there um 12 hour thing uh 12 12 hour same thing as well uh same same Thing as well right here so what does That mean on the other side that does Mean on the other side that the same Sort of trap areas that we spoke about Over the past couple weeks uh weeks

Actually are still very much relevant Um anything below 17 000 bucks on CME is Completely irrelevant for long term Above 17 000 bucks that's when I start To look for the next greater creative uh Sorry greater corrective balance to Occur Um which probably brings things up uh North of 18 000 and maybe even Beyond From there as well Um and I do have a little bit of hoping With that as well perhaps coming up here Um and then of course we should also go Reference to Castle momentum which I Don't even have up here so let's just uh Pop this one on see if they agree uh for Today as well that would make things a Little bit more easy I suspect so let's Go over here boom 12 hour what are we Looking at uh 12 hours actually up right Now 12 is going to be remaining up as Long as bitcoin's above 16 000 bucks on CME currently trading about 330 above There so not bad six hour time frame Same pivot sixteen thousand bucks Um and it's gonna be freshly turning up With the closure above there hour and uh 28 minutes left to go full hour time Frame is going to be up above basically 16 000 bucks again or 15 950 and then The hourly is probably gonna be flippy Floppy and down and then just flippy Floppy and down and we'll stay down Below 16 4. so short term bit of a range

Probably pulls back a little bit here The question is on this pullback do you Start to see you know these critical Regions Um uh uh uh violated you know show me on The charts where the big nasty bears Touched you yes those Bears Um sorry sorry someone's got to be [ __ ] having fun today because it's Been boring as all hell born is all hell We've been relegated we've been Relegated to 340 ranges and now we get Excited when we see a move like that oh Man I was back testing uh price action From like literally 2021 like the heart The heat of 2021 uh yesterday night and I was just I was like crying over oh my God it's like It was it was so much for forgiving it Was so much more easy you know you'd Have like a you'd have like an hourly Range that would just be absolutely Humongous Um anyways uh yeah so going back on over Here Um if you do see you know if you start To see Bitcoin especially on CME go Below 16 000 bucks again that's going to Be a pretty damn good warning signal Um what did I say was the pivot over Here uh let's see Um I probably said 16-1 that'd probably Be close enough as well Um on a closing basis so you know back

Below there I look at this as a local High again closing basis and very likely To be at another test to the bombs of The range Um as far as the higher term time frames Go what's new well we did close another Two day time frame last night and Bitcoin did close above the pivot I Believe I believe it was 15 900 it Closed about 9 90 bucks above there so Definitely not emphatically and you can See that that's represented on the chart Over here we're still not even really Getting a real cross certainly not a Close of a closure for a cross and What's very interesting about this is That the pivots has actually moved up on The two-day time frame to 16 500 Basically so that is to say Um as long as Bitcoins below 16.5 I Still look at this as risk to the Downside side especially within this Next like two to four day period Basically between now and the end of the Week here's the thing though and here's The hopium if Bitcoin holds without you Know closing on new lows by end of this Week the probabilities these statistics Will massively turn in favor of the blue Laws for putting in a a much bigger Balance um a much much bigger balance But for right now I'd say that it's still it you know it's Still still to the downside also another

Chart that I actually haven't showed um I haven't showed this chart since like June probably it's another two-day time Frame chart it's actually for spot price Action but not CME same sort of thing Basically what I thought was interesting About this one is that we've actually Already hit Um we we've actually already gone Extremely close to not just the average Move we've actually overshot it but We've gotten uh even closer to the top Side of the first Innovation here so and Then this one's also basically pivoted Around the same days which would put us Like between Um Would actually put us like already there In fact as far as the average days goes Yeah so in this case that would suggest That hey uh you should it's it's more Likely to be looking for a bounce right Here Um you know on the higher term time Frames but the question is do the lower Term time frames give away first if they Do all that goes out the window I would Be looking towards 13 to 13 5 or so with The bounce along the way of course not Gonna all happen the same day or Unlikely to happen the same day I would Think but then again always wrong on That Um but uh but on the higher term time

Frames yes you know if things do Basically uh hold on to closing basis Above the current lows by end of this Week I would say the probability is Going to really start to turn in favor Of a um of a rally probably somewhere Around 18 maybe even a much greater Rally than that definitely possible from Here Um and of course in the short term if You do see that pop back above like 17 On CME that'd be another damn good Indication that you're gonna see that That same thing happen Um and and bullets will hold before end Of week until then resume the downside Big eyes on the monthly at least as far As I'm concerned I think that's a great Place for leaving to be leading off on This particular video Um I put out a video yesterday on buy Bits new uh new exchange they have have They have basically a decentralized Exchange so it kind of takes care of the Issue of like avoiding an FTX sort of Situation Um of course you know only if this is Relevant to you it's I understand that Anytime you talk about exchanges people Are going to call you show but I do want To make sure that people who are looking For something like that you know you Actually know that it's available to you Liquidity is it great no still uh still

Overshadowed by most centralized Exchanges but it's decent and um yeah It's banned for all the all the regular Countries as you would as you would Guess Um so so yeah that is a decision for you To make for yourself I'll have a link in The description below you also got buy Bits regular promotion going on too but I don't need to mention that for right Now because it is time to be leaving off On this video I want to I want to be Wishing the best best as always take Care much love and see you hopefully Soon