Bitcoin Is Closer To A Major Low Than You May Think

Welcome back to the Eric Crown crypto Channel wishing you a happy new day Started slice Sunday macro morning over Here as we get prepared for the end of The year and probably even q1 of 2023 as Well so this is gonna be focused on the Very high term time frames we're talking About very long term time frame ideas Nothing in the short term if you want uh An analysis on that check out Yesterday's video basically the same Video that we've been having for like The past week now that's how slow things Have been essentially Um but today I want to present Um a little bit of hopium yeah a little Bit of hopium for the perhaps not so Distant future and then some statistics Regarding that as well as a few of the Scenarios here too anyways I wanted to Start up this analysis first and Foremost actually on the crowntune Application which reminds me I forgot to Talk about the damn sale going on we Have a Black Friday sale going on right Now for the next uh four days and 14 Hours or so no fomo of course if you're Interested in any one of the programs I Humbly humbly humbly implore you to just Watch the promotional videos that Accompany them over here on the store They'll explain who they're for who They're not for so you can get an idea Of what to expect all right sweet so

Let's jump back into it over here and Start it off with the dash the dashboard Um on the crowntree navigation again you Can find this in the link in the Description below all this data here is Free if you're on the daily so first and Foremost I want to bring attention to The global open interest now we are at The lowest Global open interest Representing um basically open leverage Positions in almost two years now the Last time that Bitcoin was seeing these Levels of open interest around 6 billion Or a little bit below 6 billion Um was uh basically in 2020 uh 2020 Actually yes 2020. when Bitcoin was Around the 10 to 13 000-ish range now I Also want to draw attention to the fact That over the past year and we could Even extrapolate this to two years You've been seen or we've been seen a Nice natural downtrend on the open Interest so the market slowly gets to Leveraged over time I mean that really Is one of the major purposes of a bear Market is to wash out the delivered People or wash out the over leverage People and he leveraged the whole market So in this case you can see that all of These major lows all these Spike lows Going back to basically the last All-time high at 69 000 Bucks have been Met with a slow and steady sideways Period that follows afterwards and a bit

Of a you know another bear Market rally So you saw the same thing over here in December of last year that was your Rally from like 50 000 to 50 uh some Something rather some somewhere around There above 50 000 basically I can't Actually read these numbers all that Well Um in this case we saw another one in January again of this year that was your Rally from about 35 000 bucks all the Way up to 45 uh actually almost got to Like 46 47 right there then again we saw Into the spike down over here this was Of course the May Rally or may attempt At a rally and then we saw another one In June that was your Rally from Basically like 18 000 or 25 and then Once again seeing this area hit if you Were to kind of Imagine a regression From all these major major lows here I'll be seeing this on the last major Dumpola party to that our current lows At around 15 000 bucks or so so you know What's most likely to happen from here At least a bit of sideways so that's Exactly what we're seeing right now I Mean that's what we said last week and The week before that when we started to Really identify this over here you know Sideways is the most likely thing within This raid between about 17 500 uh highs Versus about 15 ish to 15 500 lows Um you know is going to be an attempt at

A greater Rally from here perhaps yes uh Definitely possible but you will very Likely notice that all these bounces Been getting weaker over time Um percentage-wise so you know if we Were to see a rally probably somewhere Around 17 and a half I think would be The kind of the major area Um but things don't really change for The higher term time from as long as Bitcoin's below 18 000 bucks so 17 and a Half would you know be reasonable if Things get really crazy if we were to See like a true uh bear Market rally Like a really scary one that would Probably be somewhere around 19 to 19 And a half thousand bucks Um but again you know looking at this We're we're seeing the the intended Effect of the bear market so this is I Mean this is good news for very Long-term people very bad uh very bad News for short-term speculators who you Know are just playing the long hold game Um but you know we are starting to see Some serious progress within this and Resetting it back down to the levels Where the liquidity bubble really began Which was in 2020 again um coming off The Rona time so moving on to the next One the leverage ratio which literally Represents you know the leverage ratio Let me just remove my face there we go Goodbye Mr rat face it's right here and

You've seen that that's taken a major Dump for the first time basically and Ever Um you know coming back down to levels That haven't been seen since September But uh but hey at least it's something Right there uh but just another sort of Things you know in the same vein as hey We are starting to see some new Leveraging going on here and then also While we're on this page the daily Funding rates we did see extreme extreme Lows um you know levels that we haven't Seen in months at this point it's got to Be like six months plus Um at uh at the height of the November Dump thus far now you would expect that But again you expect extremliness during Extreme movements and that's exactly What we experienced right there so you Know a lot of things are starting to Align with hey if you're long-term Minded on this asset we're a lot closer To the low than not Um in terms of like timing it I I think That that could happen anytime between Now and uh it basically May of next year 2023 in terms of price wise you know if Bitcoin comes down to the 20 30 I I Don't consider that personally I don't Consider that all that much I would say That's a very incendiary statement um And also not not like fully accurate Just because like 20 or 30 is a [ __ ]

Lot but you know it's different between Like 15 000 bucks to 12 to 13 000 bucks That's what I'm kind of what I'm looking At right there Um so I do want to just you know remind Myself and perhaps remind other people Out there as well if you're very Long-term minded Um don't need to get too damn cute in These regions and personally speaking uh While I've not gone 100 in and I will Not go 100% in uh well ever really Um but at twenty thousand bucks I went About 25 to 30 in and around this region I added another 15 to 20 and if Bitcoin Goes a little bit lower I'll do the same Thing as well remaining with at least 25 Um for if in one Bitcoin you know turns Around I mean there's always a Possibility that never does but uh but That's a calculated risk I suppose all Right sweet so now that we've gone Through this let's go into the actual Charts we're actually gonna start off Today's Um charting with uh Dixie the dollar Index because we do have a weekly or Sorry what we do have we do have a Weekly closure but more importantly we Have a monthly closure coming out up um In three days three days and 15 hours Actually so a few things of interest Right here that I think Um call into question that this current

Rally that we've seen might actually be Done um I'm actually heavily considering This possibility now for several reasons So I'll go through the full explanation Of it similar we how we how we have These um extreme volatility signals on The weekly which by the way probably Does bounce in the short term you know This is not an analysis in the short Term again Um but uh but similar to how we observed Two extremes on a weekly bbwp for Dixie The monthly is starting to show extremes On the monthly volatility indicators Right here similar to what we saw or Compared to what we saw in March of 2015. so I would I would count this as Actually double Extremes in this case Yes it's monthly yes it goes a lot Further out obviously and that's going To be accompanied with two other things One the monthly has bearish Divergence And like very obvious bearish Tavern is Here too Um you know the monthly uh price is Actually making significantly higher Highs and monthly hour RSI making lower Highs I mean that is this is like Picture perfect Divergence right here is There going to be a third drive on it Maybe yes definitely possible yes uh but We're starting to see some signs of Actual long-term topping Um on top of that we can all see that

The monthly Jewel has all this upside Curvature Um so it's not necessarily A downside Symbol just yet but the last time we saw A turnaround in this region was when was Basically the last major hide before Consolidation in April 2015 which was This area right here so you can see that Things did trade so I was after that yes It did go for a nice retracement and Ultimately a continuation so could we Get something similar to that and then Put in the third Drive possible that Would be definitely the bullish case for Myself but in the meantime does that Things does that mean that things can Pull back significantly more um I mean We've already hit two of our major Targets on this one that was basically Around about a buck 05 to a bucko five And a half if it wants to take another Step to the downside I'd probably be Looking somewhere around a bucko two and A half to a bucko three and a half Something like that now of course this Can be extrapolated into the quarterly Chart which is not closing this month But closing next month at the end of the Year and I think things start to get Very interesting here because we can Observe that there is actually hidden Bearish Divergence Brewing between the 2001 highs and the highs that we're Experiencing right here price action has

Made lower highs But RSI has made slightly higher highs You can barely see it there but this one Is certainly higher it is 70 spot 6-3 Versus the prior High which is 69 spot 7.5 so you know it is in there that Would obviously imply that this needs Confirm as a local high which would Imply that we need to see a quarterly Closure basically below like 101 or 101 And a half so that's like very far away I mean that's not happening until like March or or I guess March April at the Minimum of 2023 Um but hey you know in the short term Can this thing come down more and come Down closer to like you know a bucko two And a half to a buck or three and a half Yeah definitely possible Um so generally speaking that's going to Help risk on assets hasn't really been Helping Bitcoin recently because Bitcoin Has been having its own issues with the Ftech situation obviously but the thing With that is is that Um is that you know when that sort of When the debris of that whole uh sort of Situation gets um pulled away you know Bitcoin's gonna have uh well it's gonna Have a lot of reasons to Rally in that Case because it did not participate in Any of the rallies that were seen in Traditional markets um as of right now So yes okay so we've gone through that

We've gone through that Um let's go into the next one or should We even just we can just quickly Reference this as well Dixie monthly uh Stochastic also turning down and about To get below the critical zone for the First time and very very very very very Long time again the last thing we saw it Turned down from this region was Actually the height of this rally over Here and so we're seeing someone Swimming over here and very likely to Stay down as long as Bitcoin or as long As Dixie's below 112 uh 40. Um so yes you know I do think that this One probably has more anyways now moving On into Bitcoin so where do I want to Start this analysis um let's actually Start it over here on coinbase in fact Uh because coinbase trading this weekend And a few things of interest so first And foremost I wanted to highlight the Extremes on volume so volume again Represented by this bottom uh pane right Here this grade up Uh great out of stuff now I really think That in a lot of cases Um when people talk about volume it's Complete [ __ ] meme to be quite to be Quite Frank with you it's complete [ __ ] beat me the reason why I say That because people make a [ __ ] Mountain out of molehill when talking About like very short-term moves in

Volume and I just think it's incredibly [ __ ] arbitrary you know cannot be Proven wrong with that sure go ahead but On Extreme moves when I'm talking about Extremists I mean like parabolic All-time highs and just devastating Crashes we do expect to see volume Extremes that's when I really do start To pay attention to it because as you Can see here what do all of the major Highs and lows have in common major Volume extremes on coinbase uh which is In my opinion like one of the most Legitimate us-based exchanges so in with Like a decent history you know it's not Perfect obviously but it's decent and We've seen the biggest volume the Biggest volume by far on the November Dumpola party and here's what's even More instant about this Um is that the volume is measured in Coins traded not US dollars so when Bitcoin here is trading at like 16 000 Bucks and it's showing even a similar Volume to what we saw over here in the Rona times Um that where Bitcoin was trading at Like 5 000 bucks that is significantly More actual dollars exchanging hands of Course so I do think that that deserves A lot of notice and so what I've done is I've marked off all of these major Extremes they're not all macro lows Obviously this one was not a macro load

Not nor was this one but these two were Of course right here and what we can Observe from the prior ones is that After that major extreme was hit there Was a lot there you know there was any There was an immediate reaction of Course but generally speaking it was an Immediate reaction into a range for Months months after that and then the Range gets broken in all kids to the Upside except for this one except for This one no this one got to go [ __ ] Itself Um so fair enough and also a bowling Stream on the high right here as well But I didn't uh I didn't mark these off Um the high side is anyways Uh we've seen the volume extreme what is This one two three weeks ago so you know What's most likely to be expected here a Lot of sideways some bounce attempts There might be another swipe of the lows Maybe a little bit lower overall Um but I do think that in the short term To medium term bears are starting to Wear out their welcome a little bit I do Think what's most likely Bitcoin is Really going to hit like the nasty Downside bearish targets you're going to See that in like 2023 just personal Opinion but uh but in this case right Here notice another thing kind of on the Same side as that historically speaking So again take you know take some time to

Kind of look at this all of these have Really ground out uh after that major Volume Um extreme was hit for like two to three Months so you know expect more boring Times honestly is what I'm saying from Here uh they're already [ __ ] boring Enough but if you're around in 2018 2019 Very reminiscent of this right now um Very reminiscent just Ultra [ __ ] Boredom and fair enough you know I Totally get it Um except for like the full-on crypto ta Nerds this is just the time to be doing Something else man just do something Else at this point Um but yeah Okay so we've gone through That now let's go on to actual uh Indicators here we can see that on the Weekly RSI we had some hidden bearish Evidence I'll say that that's mostly Played out already Um at some point there's going to be Some bullish Divergence being formed Over here to I think it forms from this Exact moment probably not no Um you know just seems a little bit too Shallow of a drive to me would you know Would make a lot more sense if it came Down like a little bit more some like This and then tried for a bit of a Bounce so you know could that could Could that align with another attempt at The lows in the short to medium term

Perhaps yes but ultimately there will be Some sort of bullish evidence there uh At some point I mean 25 reads are pretty Obnoxious and also on coinbase actually Has never even gotten that low before I'm sure it's I'm sure it's been that Low before if we were to go to uh you Know the longest running historical Chart here which is actually the index And actually no that's literally the Lowest weekly RSI level we've ever seen So you know what's it likely that we go A little bit lower probably not not very High so naturally Divergence will form Over the next like month month and a Half or so so again uh just putting the Puzzle piece together here now taking it One step further let's go and check out The weekly stochastic momentum which we Can find over here and the weekly Stocast momentum uh does have a chance To you know to turn to the upside this Week I guess if Bitcoin can can trade And close back above sixteen thousand Eight forty I think it's maybe a little Bit less likely Um looking at CME it did close below It's pivot but not decisively I would Say so we're not really getting anything Like super helpful or super super useful From that right now But hey you know if you do see Bitcoin Close above that region you're probably Going to see an extension somewhere into

The mid 17s I would I would expect Um still you know that kind of be like The range highs in this case so still Have to be looking at an overall range At least in my opinion Um but if we can take this just one more Step further now I want to go into the Fundamental analysis right here so this Is a big focus on the monthly here Because obviously the month is almost Over I think we have like Yeah we have like three four days left In the trading month to go there's 30 Days of November according to my Calendar which is really nice Um and so uh and so looking at this There's a lot of things of interest Right here so I always like to pull up This chart at the end of the month but Um I guess if you want some opium there Is some to be glazed from this uh so First and foremost let me go over what I'd like to present Um in a statistical manner so the Cisco Manner what I'm looking at right here is When the indicator itself turns from Green to red and then measuring that Moment like uh like you see right here So um the the circle area that's when it Turns from green to Red to the next Major uh macro low and so what I've done Is I've gone through all the previous Four times where that's happened and I Measured off from where it turns again

Red to the next major macro low and I Found that on average there was a about A 61 spot three four percent correction From that time what's very interesting About that is that we're literally on The average right now basically we have Frustrated a little bit below it to be Fair 61 spot 6-3 you know not a Humongous difference right there Um but you know it's it it that's as [ __ ] close you're gonna get Especially when we're talking about a Major Mac remove really the slightest Pixel change makes a human hunger you Know makes a humongous change in price So what do you know we've actually Already hit that uh again another thing Kind of supporting that hey Statistically speaking We're closer to a low than not very very Likely Um if we were to go for a first standard Deviation analysis of this uh we've Already all we've obviously already hit The bottom side of the first animation We've already hit the average so the Next uh logical area of Interest would Be the 66 spot 80 retracement so let's Just see where that would be Um Let me just try to get as close as Possible 66 uh 80 I think it was that Would put Bitcoin at 13 500 basically Which is you know if you've been on the

Channel for a while now the two day and The five day setups I kind of still in The same uh area as that so I'll just Briefly go over the five day right here And we'll go to the full through the Full rigmarole we just got a five-day Closure last night the same volatility Versus stillcast momentum Senator again Extreme lows on volatility lead towards Expansion average moves first animation You get the idea there's no one new on This channel so I don't need to explain Explain this anymore Um but uh but basically we had another Five-day close last night and the five Days forecast momentum pivot has Actually been basically unchanged uh It's still like well above 18 000 bucks Um so I do think that in the short term If we're going to see continuation we Probably do see it in this next week Um yeah this next like five day period Starting Monday Um but at that point you are gonna start To hit this regression over here and This number will most likely come down Uh sniffling although I thought that Last night and that was certainly not The case so that'd be a little bit of Hoping on that side as well as far as The rest of the hopium case goes well One we do have a regression from the Last few made macro lows here which it Would theoretically be touching uh

Coming into the end of November and then Also the other major thing that I want To keep in mind with this is once we get Into December does the slope of this Indicator change from a negative to a Positive slope again we saw it actually Increase the downside on the last Closure so that's like not really a good Sign but it can turn on a dime that's Definitely possible we've seen in the Past in 2018 2019 for example so if you Do start to see that that would be the Next sort of major indication of a macro Low being put in basically somewhere Somewhere reasonably close to this price In the grand scheme of things so just Another thing that I wanted to kind of Remind myself of for the longer term Minded people here a lot to get into in This particular video so I think that's A good place for me to be leaving off Um yeah once again because we spoke About the sale yeah so that's all good Right there Bobby's got their promotion Going they got 30 000 bucks uh deposit Bonus and uh zero percent on maker fees Um so that is that I'd like to wish you The best of the best much love take care And see you hopefully soon