Bitcoin & Crypto ByBit Scalp Trading Strategy – Historical Price Delta Range

Welcome back to the Eric Crown crypto Channel and a very special day today as I get to debut a very anticipated Indicator it's anticipated by myself Because it's been very secretive before Now and that is the hpdr or the Historical price Delta range made by the Caretaker himself he hasn't released Anything in a long time or at least not Of this nature in a while and so it is Time for a caretaker to unveil his new His new his new little magical indicator Of which I've created a couple Strategies for I'll show you one in this Particular video but first things first What actually is the hpdr well I'll let You I'll let the man tell you In his own words of course and that's Over here so the general idea of this Indicators to give Traders a clear Graphical representation with numerical Outputs of the range of historical Returns you as a Trader can use this Information to help calculate the Probability in relation to historical Returns that the price will make your Particular percentage get price gain or Law loss and hit a particular price Within their chosen sample length all Right So that's a long way of saying that I Have a nice little strategy for you Which is over here so this this the Strategies that I'm going to unveil for

This indicator Um I want to say first and foremost yes You can scale them all the way up to you Know a full hour a six hour 12 hour Daily I'm focused more on the short term Time frames here but I do find that they Generally work best on the lower time Frames if you're more of a scalping type Of person so if you want to get in and Out relatively fast then this is perhaps Something worth considering if that's Not you if you're looking to hold trades For days and trade the trend Um this is not for you or at least in The way that I'm going to be using this It is certainly not for you all right Sweet so Um first things first before we actually Get into it I should let you know that Because this is a low time frame this is A five minute time frame we're going to Be getting iterations all the time the Numbers however will be on the smaller Side naturally because right now Bitcoin Is in one of the lowest volatility Periods that it's ever had so one of the Things that is a consideration is fees And fee structures so if it would be Best to be used on exchanges with low Fees like by bit of course I have a Special link in fact in the description Below where it does give you zero Percent on fees for maker orders so that Means if you're a limit order not

Getting filled at market price but on a Limit order then you don't pay any fees Which is actually humongous gain Especially with a strategy like this so You don't really have to worry about Like you know covering your fees in this Case anyways let's get into it now so We're going to be focusing on the five Minute time frame uh we're going to be Using the hpdr the bbwp moving average And then the pmarp which are all Caretaker indicators the only paid one However is the hpdr you can find it on The app of course but that is going to Be the the only paid one out of these Everything else that caretaker has or This overall majority is uh is Incredibly uh is incredibly generously Free actually which is kind of crazy Um but uh but fair enough anyways what Defines a risk management parameter so Ideally we want to see a a closure below The prior range low we can use the Lux Algo for this so I'll even put this in [Music] So we can use that or if you know how to Plot ranges yourself you can do it that Way as well the key is that you are Consistent with it emergency a wick Below the prior lower low and on the Actual Trend didn't happen once in Calcium but as always need an emergency Condition because black swans are a Non-zero probability and

Not not wise to mess around with so how Will positions be entered well what we Need to see and it's going to make a lot More sense once we actually get to some Examples is we need to see the price Close below the blue range low Or a price below blue range low and Close another way of saying that Um and then we cross check that with the Bbwp moving average to see if it's Trending down from the prior close to Current close so if the price if the Prior close moving average is higher Than the current one where it is also Closing below the bottom side of the Blue range lows that's an entry and for The purposes of this testing we'll do a Full position of course Um you know there's ways to optimize This as always but need to be consistent For testing purposes how will positions Be exited so profit taking we need to See pmarp above 75 percentile on closure A few optimization considerations you Can use these if you like you don't have To use them of course at all I won't Test them in this way because obviously That's you know that's going to make Things a lot more convoluted a lot more Complicated and I want to be as direct And um and consistent as possible with This but you could size up if you're Further away from the Blue Zone so if You're in like the yellow uh orange red

Zone then perhaps consider putting Higher you know higher size on you could Use the time component of the Quant Stats to essentially say hey if I'm Looking for this trade to you know on Average if this trade is expected to Take like 30 minutes to win and now it's Uh closer to an hour I'm probably most Likely going to lose this trade so I Might as well just close it now instead Of wait so that reduce your opportunity Cost and potentially your your loss as Well you can also obviously plot your Your P L's but you know your take Profits and your loss areas using the Quant data just taking the averages you Can also only take a signal if the bbwp Moving averages is greater than and Fifty percentile or you could also close Intricanda when pmarp levels this one I Do in my own practice I won't test like This however because that's gonna it's Well you can't do that with the data Obviously but anyways let's now go into Um I'll just show you very briefly on the Charts what it looks like this is what It looks like really quickly and then I Want to show you next the statistics for The 50 iterations that I've tested Myself Um this was between the 12th of November To the to to the 22nd of November so in A 10-day span there were 50 trades in

The five minute Um as you can see I recorded them all Right here we'll do like nine or ten Together after this of the 50. it's 37 More wins so that gives it a 74 win rate Which is pretty damn good especially When you're getting trades this often Um on average the the winners took 45 Minutes or a little over 45 minutes to Return on the losing side 70 minutes and Of course the next thing that I'm most Interested in is the average P L's for The win percentage versus the average Pianos for the loss percentage I don't Really care so much about the raw Nominal numbers I'd want the percentages Because that's going to be more Consistent over time and found that on Average the winners were returning not Point four five percent versus the Losers at uh not 0.63 percent loss first Standard deviation gives us a range Right here for the wins versus the Losses right here and then I did a min Max as well so we'll go through and and Back test a few together or nine up to Nine Assuming that uh the time on this is Going to be you know allowing for such Things and so let's uh let's just get Into it so here's the here's a setup Over here I'll briefly show you you know How to get the other indicators they're All default by the way so bbwp this one

By the caretaker there you go 2100 likes Amazing he deserves another billion for That one it's a lovely one one of my Favorite indicators and pmarp is Literally my favorite indicator and Again you know here are the uh The the settings for I should actually Show you where to get it just type in Pmarp boom there you go Um by the caretaker again pmar uh well First off you need the indicator pmarp Right here 20 vwma 350 look back that's All that matters for this bbwp settings 13 252. those are the big ones or and Also SMA right there as well is Important All right sweet so now that we have that I am going to take a sip of this water And we're going to get into some Examples And then obviously the hpdr you know You'll have access to that if you're Supposed to have access to it but it'll Just show up right here oops there we go All right lovely okay so now that we're Into it and and then I have the Lux algo For the support of resistance um that One just type in Lux I'll go boom there You go oh sorry keep it all one word There we go this one right here it'll Plot three support and resistance for You if you you know if you don't know How to do it it's a it's it's it's good Anyways um okay so now we're looking for

Closures below the bottom side of the Blue range lows Um alongside the bbwp moving average so That's this white part right here of This indicator Reducing from the prior closure to the Current closure the closure that Actually has you know the closure below So we can see that there's a couple Closures below the Blue zone right here So let me actually first mark off what The blue zone is it's this area On the current one Okay here it's here so the most Difficult thing about this indicator is Literally like deciphering the blue Versus the cyan it's a little bit Difficult there Um I'm gonna get rid of all these Actually I'm also going to put in a Horizontal for the take profit level Which is 75 there we go Um so we'll zero in it over here these Ones are obviously closing below so we Have a closure below closure below but Here's the thing once we get those we Need to go cross check the bbwp moving Average to make sure that it's Decreasing from the closure of a closure And in this case I'm going to mark off Where the actual closures are it's right Here And it's right here again So we can go and reference this and

Again it's the white portion of this Indicator and you can see the prior Closure which is right here Is showing a number at the top left hand Side in the white number that's the Moving average uh number is 9 21. so the First one that we have is 1317. that's Obviously increasing that is not an Entry then we go up again 263 so what's the next one well 33.49 so Neither of these satisfy those Conditions so we move on We have another one right here Okay closes below I think quite Obviously the moving average is you know Turning up close over closure there so No entry there as well All right let's move on okay we have uh Definitely something over here all right I can see that we have one visually Right here boom okay we have a closure Below what's the prior moving average Well it's this one right here top left Hand side white number 6262 current is 60 87 okay we have an entry lovely uh 17115. all right so now where's our Range lows where are we taking like in This case not going to be going not Going to be waiting for that one wait This is why it's important to actually Know how to define range lows your real Range lows are like right here Um anyways we either wait for that to Close below or for the pmarp level to

Get hit which gets hit over here Boom so we have our entry 17115 okay 17 115 we have our exit over here 17149 49 boom all right lovely lovely Uh that's a win so I type on a one right There I'll select record at the actual Time that it took in this case it takes A little bit longer so it's uh 145 Minutes I'll type that right there okay Boom and boom all right so that's the First one nice not bad I'll take it all right let's move on Um let's find a new more Unique Piece of Price action okay I'm just I'm first Looking for closures below so we see a Closure below here yes Barely but it is there Moving average is obviously increasing From the prior to the current numbers 56.43 current 60 even no that's no no go No go All right so we have a few over here This one obviously again up trending up Trending but then we get over here Might be okay so the prior closure and Now I'm just reading the number from the Pain 86.98 current is 87.06 so still not There if we get another closure below Right here Okay let me just remove the prime so the Prior number is 87.30 on the moving Average current is 87.14 that's an entry Again I'll just zero it in right here 87.30 87 14. boom that's our entry okay

Risk management is the closest range low Which is right here so I'll just Mark That off really quickly All right lovely I'm gonna ride in my Entry 16802 16 802 boom all right and then we move On to well where's our profit actually This one happens very soon afterwards 18 Uh sorry 6 16 to 8 24 we get that Closure above the pmarp level here 16824 Not much again lowest one of the lowest Volatile times in bitcoin's history But it's a win nonetheless so we'll take It And again obviously the numbers will be Bigger if you go for higher time frames I'll even show you some of them as well In fact I'll show you them right now I'll show you some of them right now for The daily for the Daily We're talking like 12 on the wins versus 12 on the losses for the Fallout is four Right here 376 versus 412. For the uh hourly 220 versus 242 so on And so forth you get the idea All right let's go back here Okay so we got another couple wins Lovely let's continue on All right Um do we have one right here We have a closure below very obviously But again moving up from closer to Closure on the moving average so no

Entry we have one right here Uh same issue closes below you can you Can see it increasing from closer to Closure we have no entry All right we have one right here however Okay boom close this below Moving average is very obviously Downtrending here I don't think we need To zero in on that where's our range Lows again I'd say that they were there That they're over here And we can see that profit taking Happened soon after that so uh entry 16-828 28 boom Exit 16885. Alrighty 57 bucks How long did it take it took looks like About 35 minutes So three five okay got all that other Data in there nice Oh whoops I forgot to put in for this One here we go make sure it's in there Too all right Okay lovely all right let's on to the Next one do we have one here yes we do Yes we do Um and this actually provides a bit of a Nuanced example as well so we do have an Example right here closes obviously Below the Blue Zone Um we can see very obviously this is Downtrend as well on the moving average So in this case we can't be in two

Trades at one time all right well you Actually could to be fair actually you Can but I don't record it that way I Don't record it that way so I look at it In the worst possible scenario so in This case I look at this as the entry 16 875 and this as the exit which is Actually only a 10 10 Gainer Um So I will actually go with that now in Practice what actually happens and the Time is obviously going to be different But in practice what actually happens in Practice I would just average in Um but again I want the results to be as Bad as possible so I know what the worst Case scenario is we'll do that So there we go Again it doesn't need to be perfect just Needs to return wins all right Um we have an example here obviously Closing below the Blue Zone but I do Want to address this one as well so you Can see that the pmarp is above the take Profit level like the whole other prior One so that's why I'm not choosing these Ones even though they do probably Fulfill the criteria but in this case I Just look at this one Phone blowing up with notifications Anyways so we're looking at this 16 8 15 Prior uh moving average is 98.81 current 9810 okay so we have an entry 16815. 815 boom all right literally the next

Closure after that is the is the is the Exit 16 to 827 again a nuanced example You could have very easily waited for You know one of these uh one of these Higher prices over here realizing that This is an extreme read so it's probably Going to trade a little bit higher but I'm going to go buy the book 18 16 8 27. The a27 Boom Okay I'm literally talking like 12 uh Yeah 12 bucks there it's like it's Nothing Um that I don't need to measure that It's five five minutes one bar Okay boom The idea is every once in a while you Get a nice big winner Um okay we need to find a loser though They certainly do happen uh I'm sure We'll find one before the end of this All right do we have an example here Nope moving averages up okay Zoom out a little bit more we have one Right here yes we do boom we would never Dissolve is obviously turning down so Let's record this one 16 344 Alrighty take Pro or where's our risk Management this low right here that blue Line is the range lows whereas our take Profit here is 73 no this one right here Uh 16 401. So there we go And again During periods of extreme low volatility

We expect the returns to also be low as Well this one comparatively to the last Few a lot higher Okay here we go let's do a few more nice And fast here Um we got a closure below right here but Moving average is turning up up up up up Up so no no entries there what about Here Let's see the moving average up up up up Up And down so we actually do have an Example right here Nice Um 16 378 16 378 and what's another optimization you Could just enter back down around the Lows really Um but in this case you know we got an Entry right there obviously risk Management is much further down so it's Not going to get hit we hit our take Profit right here a little bit after That 16 432 Scene four three two I thought this one Was going to be a loss it wasn't Said it's 54 bucks Gainer Let's see how much time transpired 30 Minutes nice and nice and short and Sweet exactly what we're looking for Here Okay certainly we are going to find a Loss I can assure you of that they they Do exist for this strategy

Um Okay we have another example right here Boom closes below obviously the moving Average is decreasing what's our number 16 464. For Four six four boom Obviously support is right here so as Long as it doesn't go below there on a Closing basis we stay in and our take Profit is here Lovely 16 500. So 36 dollar Gainer Or rich now Let's see 40 minutes By the way we've seen all these Iterations like literally just in the Past See how far back we are now This is literally like two this is like Literally three days ago Um Okay anymore we need to find a loss Though that we need to find a loss All right Um No examples here No example here I'm just going through This a little bit faster now I just want To I just want to find a loss okay this Is another winner right here closes Below moving average is obviously Training down 16 130. Um

Okay take profit is over here 16 177. Not bad for that Alrighty Boom and boom 125 so that's 85 minutes All right we need to I'm just going to Find a loss for the last one just to Like find one Um okay that's gonna be another winner Right there damn it Um it's a good problems to have Obviously but I want to show you like What it looks like when you should be Something like this yeah here we go here We go well Okay We don't have one yes yes yes yes yes Okay finally Jesus finally all right so This these are what the losses usually Look like is that it's an extreme move In this case to the downside you can see Bbwp moving averages moving up the whole Way through So all these closures are below and once It takes down from 100 100 100 99 84. boom that's our entry right here So it would have been 16 435 Three five hey stop down There we go Um and then you can see that's our range Lows right here closes below right here 16 375. Sixteen three seven five So forty dollar loss right there is that Okay to have when you just had a bunch

Of gainers yeah absolutely Um or at least in my opinion uh so That's the whole idea here so boom boom 125 so that's another 85 minutes And there's our loss hey what this Should be a loss Hold on uh this is Not right Um wait That there no I must have written some Oh 375 375 apologies yeah I'm not 475 375. there we go all right there we go 60 loss okay that's what I'm looking for Well I mean it's not what I'm looking For but you know what I mean Uh let's see 48 okay Include that so 45 so 45 out of 59 were Winners what's the win rate based off That Uh 45 Divided by 59 okay that's 76 and change so Something like that time when time loss Basically the same as before the only Thing the only thing that won't update Is the first standard deviation so I'll Just quickly put that through 45 minus 29 is what it's 16. okay it's actually The same here hasn't really changed Um and then 45 plus 29 Is what 74 so that actually did not Change as well so this data is literally Very consistent with the prior data Um which is what you should expect

Actually you know Um let's see 63 minus 51 is what that Would be whoops that would be 12. so Again same thing over here Then 63 plus 51 is oh actually that's Why it hasn't changed because I need to Update these numbers right here yeah There we go okay okay that's what I Thought yes we need to include this and This 488 boom For yeah that's what I thought that Looked a little bit strange okay and Then same thing over here as well yeah Let's do that And here for not that that one matters As much whoops I'm very OCD about this Um okay it's still not right and that's Why it's because it's being pulled from Like way far be behind uh 4 30. Okay that's what should be all right so Did we get everything now okay okay 88 Okay this one This one eight And it's one of these before 30. okay 430 88 yes we got that just double Checking yep all right we're good okay Season the ones that I care most about Um so what's 41 minus 28 of course That's 13 so actually this one it's more Variance in the data from what we got And 41 plus 28 is what 69 good number Right there

Alrighty and then for this one we have Uh 11. Okay and then for this it's going to be 111. Foreign Yeah alrighty we're good there okay Sweet so that's kind of the results for What we have on these 59 iterations Um gets trades very very often as you Can see the p l is very small Um now they obviously in the past they Have been bigger you know we have seen Certainly 100 or more in the past for The five minute but realistically until Bitcoin you know trades back above like Thirty thousand to forty thousand I Would expect these to be in like you Know around 50 basically on average Um until then I think that is a good Place to be leaving off on this Particular video I hope that this was Insightful as to one the way that I Trade to the way that the Quant program Works and then three uh caretakers new Indicator the hpdr other than that I Want to wish you well take care much Love and see you hopefully soon